Twitter vs Threads - Will Elon or Zuck Win?
Two billionaires fight for app dominance! Who wins?
We are only a few days into the launch of Threads and it’s already breaking growth records. It has tens of millions of users in less than a week.
However, many are making the false assumption that Twitter will die as a result.
They are wrong.
In fact, I believe both apps will survive.
In this blog post, I will explain why Twitter will survive its biggest threat yet, and why both Threads and Twitter will have a place in this world.
How will Twitter survive this threat?
Network effects
This is something that needs to be carefully considered. The reason I say that is because Threads has Instagram integration, and because of that, has been able to import users and an extremely quick rate.
Here is the thing… those are Instagram users.
A lot of active Instagram users that are downloading Threads have different behaviours than Twitter users.
Twitter has historically been short-form blogging.
Since Elon took over, he added long-form posts and videos, but it still thrives as a place to make short-form posts or blogs.
All of the people who enjoy doing that are on Twitter, not Instagram… Do you see what I’m getting at?
The users that are being brought to Threads are not the kind that wants a Twitter-style app, otherwise, they would have already been on Twitter.
Before you say that they’re not on Twitter because of Elon, please realize that Twitter’s daily active users have gone up since Elon took over, so that’s obviously not the case for the majority of people.
The network effects that Twitter has (aka users who like short-form blog content) will be more powerful than the Instagram users who were not fans of the app, to begin with.
As we go further into it, you will see that Twitter users will likely continue to prefer Twitter - the app that is made for them.
Instagram users like Instagram content.
Now, you’ve obviously noticed the incredible growth. Many Instagram users are coming to Threads.
But, we need to consider how many of these users are actually active, and what they are expecting to see.
The users that weren’t already on Twitter are used to seeing highly engaging photos and videos from Instagram influencers and friends, not short texts.
This content is unlikely to speak to them.
The hype is there now, but it’s likely we will slowly see a lot of this hype die down as they realize the app doesn’t speak to them. They will prefer to spend time on Instagram, and Tik Tok as they were doing before. Not on Threads (short-form blogging).
Twitter users will remain on Twitter
Currently, we are seeing some Twitter users, and influencers test Threads. The issue is that a lot of these highly-active Twitter users do not have large Instagram followings -because they focused on Twitter.
As they migrate to Threads their followers will be far smaller than their Twitter followers. This means that their Threads account will have a far lower value to them.
They will use Threads simply as a way to copy and paste their tweets to reach more people, but Twitter will remain their main go-to platform to engage with others.
The Threads users from Instagram will not resonate with the Twitter-style content. As we discussed earlier, they prefer engaging videos and photos.
These users will end up slowing down their usage of Threads, and thus, the value for the users who actually use short-form blogging apps will lower.
Eventually, this will lead to a dip in Threads' active users.
Twitter users will end up remaining on Twitter because that’s where they are established.
Threads is basically an MVP.
What we are seeing is Meta test the waters to see if people will migrate to their app and how they respond, and to be honest, it’s working. The problem is, they are on a tight timeline.
Their product is essentially a minimum viable product (MVP).
Threads is lacking an incredible amount of features, including the majority of the great features Elon added since his takeover.
Here are a few of the features that are missing:
Lists
DMs
Polls
Drafts
Hashtags
Voice Notes
Trending tab
Following tab
Bookmarking posts
View count on posts
Ability to follow topics
“Twitter Space” equalavent
Long-form posts (videos and text)
Can’t see who’s following you back
The only feed is a “for you” style tab… and it’s AWFUL
The list goes on.
And yes, this is only the beginning and I’m sure a lot of these will be added, but they have to do it quickly if they want to keep Twitter users.
Why would prominent Twitter users stay on Threads when it is missing tons of the features that make Twitter great?
For now, the app is incredibly bare and considering this… it doesn’t even run that smoothly.
As I said above, Threads is on a tight timeline.
So how will Threads survive?
After everything I just said, you’re probably wondering how Threads will survive.
There is still space in the ecosystem for an app like Threads - because Twitter does alienate some people.
Elon Musk has alienated and criticized mainstream media (for good reason in my opinion). Coming after mainstream media though means they will happily go to a new home, Threads.
On top of that, you can bet the mainstream media will talk up Threads as a way to attack Twitter, which will attract their viewers to try Threads.
Another place Threads will thrive is with influencers.
Instagram influencers can now bring a large majority of their following to Threads. That means a new place to communicate with their followers and a new income stream in the long run.
Considering all of this, I believe Threads can survive and gain a large user base. However, the user base will not be identical to Twitter’s.
Conclusion
Competition is awesome and it’s great to see Mark Zuckerberg give Elon a run for his money. But, it’s foolish to think this will somehow completely destroy Twitter.
Twitter has close to 250 million daily active users. That’s powerful.
Threads will bring new users to test out this style of app and will continue to gain traction quickly. However, I believe a lot of those users will not stay active for long.
The interesting part is that if those users are not satisfied with the Threads experience, they may give Twitter another shot.
At Twitter, they’ll be able to get far more features, and different people to engage with, which for many means an overall better experience.
Nothing is for certain, so let’s sit back and watch what will be one of the most interesting app wars ever.
My money is on both having a place in the world of apps.
Thanks for reading.
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